How?

We stopped pretending AGI has a denominator. There's no “84% of what”. Instead the board reads like a car's dashboard on one long road trip toward AGI — the point where AI matches or beats us at, well, everything.

It is not a prediction, not a probability, and not scientific consensus. It is a structured, auditable judgment, updated daily: two needles describing where we are and how fast we're moving.

Speedometer & odometer

The speedometer is the hero. It reads velocity — how much progress moved in the last 7 days. It rises, falls, and returns to zero as events leave the window. A dead week genuinely reads as zero. This is the daily-interesting number, the one worth a screenshot.

The odometer is the context. It reads distance— a permanent tally of all the progress so far. It doesn't decay: a quiet week doesn't un-drive the miles. It has no ceiling and no denominator. It just climbs.

The only way the odometer falls is a correction — a benchmark debunked, vaporware exposed, a key project cancelled — booked as a backward step on its axis.

Idling

Underway

Accelerating

Flooring it

Redline

The speedometer's zones describe pace, not distance. The redline is set from the board's own busiest weeks — you can brush it, but no one floors it forever.

The six axes

Every event is scored on one of six axes, each weighted by how much it really bears on getting us “there”. Five are progress axes that build distance; Friction is the brake — it only ever slows the speedometer, and never touches the odometer.

Autonomy

×1.5 · distance

Agency and self-improvement — autonomous agents, models that act, plan, and improve themselves. The scary one, and the one that counts most.

Capability

×1.2 · distance

Raw ability — benchmark jumps, emergent skills, the distance to human-level performance. Alignment and safety work lives here too: doing it doesn’t take us away from AGI.

Power

×1.0 · distance

The fuel — training compute, chip production, data centres, the energy poured into bigger models.

Diffusion

×0.9 · distance

How fast it spreads — adoption into products, infrastructure, and everyday decisions.

Vibes

×0.5 · distance

Public narrative and sentiment — viral moments, influential essays, waves of fear or optimism. Real, but weighted lightest.

Friction

×1.2 · brake

The brakes — regulation, energy and chip limits, economic crises, technical failures, political backlash. It only slows the speedometer; it never un-drives the odometer.

How events are weighted

Each event gets a direction (+ drives forward, − is a correction) and a size from 0 to 5, scored against a published rubric. A landmark model might be a 5; a minor product launch, a 1; a re-report or an unread story, a 0. Its axis weight then scales that size — an Autonomy event counts for one and a half times a Power event of the same size.

The odometer never forgets. Progress is added once and stays — there's no time decay, because a cuentakilómetros doesn't wind itself back. The only clock in the system is the speedometer's 7-day window: events count toward velocity for a week, then roll off.

Community votes.Readers can upvote or downvote each event. A net vote nudges its effective size up or down by up to 30% — the crowd can amplify or soften a signal, but the editor's call always anchors it.

Sum every progress event's weighted, signed contribution and you get the odometer. Sum everything from the last 7 days — progress forward, friction braking — and you get the speedometer.

Where events come from

Three times a day, six specialist scouts — one per axis — sweep arXiv, Google News, official registers and Hacker News. An orchestrator clusters the duplicates so a story covered by six outlets counts once. Then a depth pass reads each survivor's full article and scores it 0–5 against the rubric — cold, evidence-bound, biased toward caution. A human editor confirms the axis and approves or discards every event before it touches the board. Nothing enters without review.

What this is not

The reading is not a literal probability of AGI, and nobody can truly measure the distance to something unprecedented. Like the Doomsday Clock's “minutes to midnight”, it is a constructed instrument — a communicative device backed by a stated, public rationale. The axes, the weights, and the scores reflect editorial judgment: informed, opinionated, and fallible. Read the movement as the signal, and treat the needles as one structured reading among many, not as ground truth.

Disagree?

That's what the voting's for. If you think an event is mis-scored, overweighted, or missing, use the vote buttons on the main page to push back — or reach out directly.